GOP Candidate Breakdown #9: Herman Cain

I lived in Atlanta, Georgia for several years.  Some of my favorite times were in the year 2008.  I don't have a sports team that I follow, no real religion to speak of, so it was replaced by the 2008 campaign.  I watched CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News all the time, I was constantly reading the Drudge Report; it's safe to say that I knew everything that was going on in the campaign, I knew the journalists and the broadcasters who was with what campaign and the latest poll numbers.

In Atlanta, there's a talk radio station, WSB 750 that hosted people like Neal Boortz (who I don't mind as much as I used to), Clark Howard (there's nothing wrong with Clark Howard) and Sean Hannity (who I despise.)  Late in the evening, about 8pm, they'd play the Michael Savage show.  For those of you who don't know who Savage is, I would say that you lead normal and well-adjusted lives.  I know this because the moment that Savage enters your life, everything will fall into chaos and disarray.

I was leaving work late one night and turned on the radio.  I listened to WSB because I like listening to points of view and opinion that radically differ from my own.  But one evening instead of listening to the harsh and crass Brooklyn-accented voice of Savage, came a clear, concise Southern elegance, the kind that you'd expect a Baptist preacher from Georgia to execute without flaw.  It was Herman Cain.  He replaced Michael Savage because (according to talking with someone at WSB), they had to push Savage back to get the "nutjobs" to stop calling during the "regular" hours.

So my first full-on exposure to Herman Cain wasn't as quick as others.  He is known of course to be the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and for having turned the company around (with the exception of the one up the street from my house.)  He also ran in 2004 for the Georgia Senate Seat that was being vacated by Zell Miller and would be taken by Johnny Isakson (R).  But with this radio show, he was going to get a chance to speak to the Atlanta audience and who-knows-where-else and explain his message.

He's still in the race despite poll numbers and general lack of knowing what the hell he's doing.  So, let's get to it.

Age: 65.  He's in good health and shows his age a little, but there's polish in there.  Thats to say that Herman Cain looks wise not just... well, old.

Hometown:  He was born in Tennessee, but his home for the last several years has been Atlanta, GA.  He's usually described of as Georgian or from Georgia, which is well-enough.

It should be noted that he's the only candidate so far that doesn't have a political office under his belt.  Outside of radio broadcaster and CEO, his other credential is Chariman of the Federal Bank in Kansas City.  He's never been elected to office before, despite his campaigns.

Place in the Republican Party:  He's likable to the Tea Party movement and Fox News likes him as well, more because they like conservative minorities and not really because of who Herman Cain is or what he stands for.  Because he's never held an elected office before and hasn't won a campaign before, he's considered more of a fringe candidate than Ron Paul.

He's okay with fundraising, but will have a long way to go to match Perry, Bachmann or Romney.

Polls:


Nationally, he's in the back of the pack.  If someone like Palin enters the race, like Ron Paul, Herman Cain should consider cutting his loses.  His voice would be lost in the media shitstorm that would ensue.

In a head-to-head match up with Obama, Cain loses by an average of 14 points.  That number is born out of two points:  Cain has a hard time getting his name and message out among the other candidates (a problem that Obama doesn't have) and while Obama is slipping in popularity, people prefer the Devil they know to the Devil they don't.  The other point is this:  what little information about Cain that has gotten out into the public knowledge has been his strong opposition against Muslims.  Not Muslim extremists, just Muslims.   More about that later on in this post.

Iowa:  He's towards the back in the poll averages, however, this is going to be worse once Perry is included in all the polling.  A black conservative businessman isn't going to have the same sort of appeal that a white Southern farmer is going to.  This blogger also wonders how Cain's religion and church (here's a link to the website of the church he's a minister that he attends) is going to play out should he advance in the nomination process.

New Hampshire: Again, not doing so hot in New Hampshire.  The more libertarian-minded populace of the state should prove to be something of an advantage to Cain, but it's harder for him to get his name out in the media (in a good way).

South Carolina:  He does better here.  However, Perry isn't put into the mix and, again, if Palin enters, a lot of attention will be taken from Cain.  As I've written before, SC does like it's crazy politicians and in the South, smart-mouthed politicians can get a little bit further.  If his campaign survives long enough, he could stand to do well here, but it's hard to imagine him getting by far enough.  At least at this point.

Florida:  More bad news. He gets shoved back, even with a hypothetical Palin campaign and there's no reason to think that he would do well in Florida.  If he can somehow position himself as a favorite in the Tea Party and still appear as a loyal Republican, he might do well.  But it's hard to tell and a little bit of a long shot.

Nevada:  Herman who?

As I wrote earlier, there are two main problems with Cain's campaign:  name recognition and bad name recognition.

Not a lot of people know who Herman Cain is and sometimes he just comes across as a bad imitation of Alan Keyes.  He's never held an elected position anywhere and, while he has a strength in a business background, there's a larger question as to whether or not that is necessary to get the country running in the right direction again.  He has to make both arguments at the same time;  that's double the work that he has to put into the campaign.

The other problem, and maybe the bigger problem, is that when Herman Cain does get on television, it's about some horrible and disgraceful thing that he has said about Muslims.  He's vocal that he wouldn't nominate a Muslim to his cabinet, he's said that Sharia law is trying to take over the country and that he's supportive of communities that want to ostracize Muslims and prevent the construct of mosques anywhere.  As these links demonstrate, it's not just that he's wrong, but that he's gone back and said that he didn't say these things.  Which makes him a liar and an opportunist.

While there is something refreshing about his bluntness and his frank speaking manner (something I always appreciate), it has to be made clear that someone that he is bigoted in private and lies about it in public.  Does he not remember that he says these things?  And if Muslims are a problem domestically, how would this play out in diplomatic relations in Pakistan and Indonesia and other predominately Muslim nations?

I don't think that Herman Cain is a bad person, but he should stop and ask himself why he's running for president.  It comes across to me as a vanity project.  It's why he took the radio gig, it's why he's a commentator on Fox News and Fox Business and why he says half the things that he does.  He's disingenuous, insincere and is a waste of everyone's time.

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Herman Cain Doesn't Know What Racism Is

Hermain Cain: Jon Stewart Attacked Me "Because I'm Black"

First off the bat, no, he didn't.  Stewart attacked Cain because Cain said that he wasn't going to read a bill more than three pages.  Let's remember Obama's the first president since Clinton to actually show some intellectual curiosity and a respect that issues have nuances, like health care reform and wars and whatnot. While he did come back and say that he was exaggerating, he didn't really fucking seem like it at the time.

Conservatives often get pegged as being a pack of racists and I think that some liberals throw the term too loosely around.  For everyone's edification, this is the definition of racism.

Talking in a voice doesn't do that.  There's a fine line, sure.  If Stewart had said "Mammy done tol' me to never do no readin' or nuttin!", that would have been racist because it perpetuates stereotypes and in the context of Cain, it would have been clear that the slight would have been against blacks.  However, speaking with a little scratchiness in the voice doesn't mean that you're trying to invoke imagery of blacks.

Now, the previous point is moot.  On Stewart's appearance on Fox News, he doesn't address this issue.  He cites the fact that he's an equal opportunity offender and leaves it at that.

But if Herman Cain thinks that this is racist, he's got a lot waiting for him.  Remember that the Republican Party in Southern California sent around an email in 2008 saying that if Barack Obama was elected, the White House would look like this:

Now, this is racist.

...

One last thing:  I find it incredulous that Herman Cain only heard about it when he was talking to Sean Hannity.  He said he was campaigning, but c'mon.  Really?  You were too busy to know that Stewart made a joke about you?  Hell, man, you're not running for president if the Daily Show hasn't made a joke about you?

I used to listen to Cain's talk radio program.  I've heard him give speeches and I've heard him talking to others.  The man is vain, arrogant and is in so much love with himself, he cuddles with himself after he jerks off.  The only reason why he's responded to Stewart/Daily Show is because it's free air time to him.  Granted, I'm doing him a favor by talking about him on this blog, but that's going to end now.

Meghan McCain Is Completely Reasonable (Countdown to her being kicked out of GOP begins NOW!)

Meghan McCain's Advice to the GOP Hopefuls

Two of the things that I've always told myself if I ever started a political blog would be first, that my arguments would be weak and in an echo chamber AND, most importantly, about once a week I would talk about how I have a crush on Meghan McCain.

But whats secretly most appealing about her is that she's someone who is not just extremely beautiful but also very reasonable.  She's like the version of her father that got me interested in politics (a lifetime ago in 2000).  She's like a date-able, blonde George Will.  Don't get me wrong, George Will seems like a nice kind of guy, the kind that would insist on paying the bill and would end the first date with a hug after holding your hand on the walk.  He's classy, in a Gilded-Age "You're not a flapper are you" kind of way.

What was I talking about?  Oh, yeah, Meghan McCain.

I've already included the link where McCain the Younger lists the different things that the GOP Hopefuls will have to do in order to get the nomination.  I don't disagree with her by and large.  There are a couple of little things though:


"What the Republican Party needs is a candidate unafraid to put the president up against the wall and call him out on all the damage his administration has done, especially to the economy, in the last three years. "


And all that damage would include what?  De-regulation of banks?  Turning a blind eye and encouraging the regulators to turn the other way or even get in bed with the people who brought us into the financial mess in the first place?  It's phrasing like this that makes one think that the federal government is the reason why we're in the economic straits that we're in, when we all know that this is not the case.  Would Ms. McCain also be willing to blame the previous president for signing the $700 billion bailout or continue to ignore it and pretend that there was just $787 billion bailout by the current president?

However, McCain makes an open acknowledgement that not many in the GOP are willing to make right now.    The fact of the matter is that Obama is going to be extremely difficult to hit and bring down in 2012.  The sooner that R's begin to admit that, the closer to winning they'll get.

The best bit of advice was to "outlast Palin fever".  McCain manages to be diplomatic about Palin, but also, in a sense, derides the actual tenacity of the campaign.  The one comment of "... at some point she is going to have to do something other than come up with clever soundbites." seems to be a little off.  I remember that was a major critique of Clinton was all he came up with were soundbites and you know what that got him?  Two terms.

One last bit:  the "forget about Iowa" part.  In the section, she talks about how its less important than people might portray it to be and that the real gamble and the real stakes are established in New Hampshire.  She's not entirely correct.  Obama made his first strong showing in Iowa back in 2008, to the surprise (even shock) to many.  Granted, Hilary Clinton came back in the NH primary, but Iowa was supposed to be a cake walk for her and, instead, it marked the beginning of the end (or the seemingly endless Bataan death march to the Democratic nomination.)

Also would be fair to point out that in 2000, John McCain didn't get the nod in IA, he got it in NH and then proceeded to get the shit beat out of him by Bush II all over the rest of the USA.  I say this not with malice towards John McCain; after all, I was supporting him and wishing that the rest of the country would see reason and vote McCain in 2000.  But Iowa did figure into the overall political strategy and, the candidates can't completely ignore IA.  Why?

Well, assume that a plausible candidate like Romney, Johnson or Huntsman pull out of IA and then put everything down in NH?  Now imagine if Herman Cain or (worse?) Michelle Bachmann getting the nod in IA.  They went from being ridiculous and inane to being "legitimate" and "plausible".

I mean, generally speaking, the entire primary/caucus/nomination process (on both sides, but especially the GOP) has to be reformed.  The arbitrariness of random states holding a good deal of political sway in the process isn't good politics and it's detrimental to the entirety of the campaign.  I can go on and on about it (and probably will in a later post).  But, the way that everything is set up currently, the road has to go through IA.  A long, desolate, pointless road, but a road nonetheless.

Rick Perry. Sigh and Yawn.

Rick Perry Running For President?

I don't feel that I have to remind the public about the rule against voting for former Govs of Texas for Prez, but I think that I'm going to anyway.

DON'T SUPPORT FORMER GOVERNORS OF TEXAS!  That state doesn't get to send another person to be prez.  And if Republicans have a problem with that, I would cite Jimmy Carter.  You want another Georgia Peach heading to DC?  No?  Good... now Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich should drop out any time now...

But most pertinently to the case of Governor Perry is that he said specifically that he didn't want to be Prez.  What does it say when he says something very specific like "I don't want to be President of the United States." and then goes to "I'm going to think about it."?  I mean, for a group of conservative intellectuals (I use the term loosely) that don't allow for ambiguity or shades of grey, this is showing some depth.

It's not that I think that Perry shouldn't run for president.  I mean, he shouldn't but that's not the point.  The point is when you are specific with your constituents about a campaign promise, you have to follow through.  There are some cases when these things change.  A guy running for president usually says that the system is broken and that they are going to change it and, once elected, rarely get to affect the change that they want (at least in Obama's case, he tried.)  You have to go back and talk to the people that put you into office and rationalize everything that happened in the interim (between when you were elected and what happened once you got there.)

But there are certain promises that are EASY to maintain!  "I'm not going to run for President." is a gimme!  Just don't run for president.

Also, I'm not entirely comfortable with a guy who thoughtlessly talked about Texas' "special" case re: secession.   Because I thought that the Civil War settled the whole thing.  And the answer was "No."

But is it just me or is Perry a little boring?  I mean, he doesn't have the colossal  fuck-up comments like W. and everyone in TX seems to be pretty happy with him.  Feel free to correct me.

And here I go correcting myself.  This is a guy that has invited all the other govs. of the nation to get together in TX and have a big prayer pow-wow so that Jesus will come off his Moon Base and help the rest of the country... even though we have God on our side... WAIT, Jesus isn't on the Moon, that's what Mormons think...

But, joking aside, there's no fire in the belly, there's no passion for the office of the presidency, not like when he was running for Gov. of TX.  I don't think that he's actually going to do it, in the end.  After all, he'd have to fight for the Xian vote in the GOP with Bachmann (I almost wrote Palin), but honestly, he doesn't seem like the kind of guy that wants to fight head-to-head with Craaaaazeeeee.

Huntsman Is In! Countdown to Crazy Shit Happening...

I think that he's not a bad candidate, but like so many others (Gingrich, Romeny), he's going to be punished for at one point in time being reasonable.

What gets me is that he took that position as Ambassador to China under the Obama administration.  Why?  He would have done as well staying in Utah.

He hasn't thrown mud as of yet, but he might be measuring his targets a little more.

As a former Mormon (I left the church in 2008), I'm still kind of excited that two TBMs are running.  I wonder how this is going to affect the dynamic, especially with the potential of bigoted comments coming from the opponents.

I think the first one will come from Michelle Bachmann, but it wouldn't surprise me if Cain took it by a nose.

Also, everyone was talking about how cordial the debaters were with each other last night and how focus they were on Obama.  However, I give it two months before they really start throwing feces at each other.

Let the monkey parade begin!

The Score Sheet

I'm going to keep a running list of those that are running for president.  Officially running.  Which means I get to ignore Sarah Palin for as long as I can.  I'm also going to rank them in the order that I think that they would be good at beating Obama.  If you disagree, feel free to comment and let me know why I'm wrong.  Then, I'll tell you why you are wrong.

1.  Mitt Romney - He's more politically savvy than people give him credit for.  He has the business credentials that they want a prez candidate to have.  He's a good looking guy and what should be an asset has been played as a hindrance:  He's Mormon.  The GOP have the chance to nominate someone that would be the closest they've come to a diversity choice and make big in-roads in the religious plurality.

2.  Gary Johnson - I just like this guy.  He's consistent, well-spoken and has stayed under the radar, both intentionally and because his name isn't "Sarah Palin".  Keep an eye on him.  I think he's our spoiler.

3.  Newt Gingrich - Logistically, the campaign has been a nightmare, but you got to admit that it was ballsy that he came out against the Ryan Plan.  It was a quasi-reasonable statement from a guy that normally isn't.

4.  Tim Pawlenty - I think I've had breakfasts that I was more excited about that Tim Pawlenty.  He also falls into the category of the being reasonable, when he wants to be, but he's already moving further to the right in an unconscionable sense.

5.  Michelle Bachmann - I really wish that she was lower on this list, but first there are too many people that are more rotten than Bachmann.  Also, Bachmann has sense to play up her Xianity in Iowa (the same state that almost went for Pat Robertson back in the 80's), so she's trying to position herself as the Huckabee for 2012.  Or the Martin Sheen in The Dead Zone, I can't really tell the difference.

6.  Ron Paul - Paul reminds me that whenever you make an event on Facebook, everyone comes by and says "Oh, yeah! Imma TOTALLY be there!", so everyone's thinking "well, there must be like a THOUSAND people that are going to this party".  There's a lot of hype and a lot of buzz.  But no one shows up.  Which is a shame because, while I disagree with Paul by and large on a lot of things, he's principled.  And you have to respect that in a politician.  Though how he's still in office after 2008, I don't know...

7.  Rick Santorum - I was really surprised that he would throw his hat into the ring.  There's no one that has a middle of the road opinion of Santorum.  Either you hate 'em or you don't.  He's banking on the fact that people don't remember that when he was Senator from PA, he said homosexuality was the problem of the nation... Now if you were ask, let's say...

8.  Herman Cain - he'd say that the problem was Muslims.  Why?  Because he comes from the Glenn Beck School of Thought, which means that the best day in America was on September 12th, 2001, the ashes and rubble of the WTC and Pentagon and the field of PA smoldered and everyone was in lockstep with Bush II.  I respect the style of his speeches but I won't respect a man that can't appreciate that legislation takes more than three pages to get across.

I want my prez to be smarter than me. I want my prez to be better than me.  I don't want someone that I could fill in for...

9.  Fred Karger - I'm not even sure why I put him on the list.  I know I could be a better prez than him.  And he's really running just to spite Romney.  If you're gay and you're just out there spreading hate about a Mormon, you've become the enemy in the instant that you preach.

Stay tuned.

GOP Debate - Pick Romney and Cut the Fat

If the moment could be crystallized and maintained, it would seem that the GOP would be able to rectify the mistake that they made last prez election cycle by supporting Mitt Romney.  The fact of the matter is that he is the most sensible of the entire group, both in 2008 and now again in 2012.  Reports seem to indicate two things: first, he's the man to beat.  Second, that he would be the only chance at diversity that the GOP would have.

Michelle Bachmann also quietly announced that she was running for prez.  I can only imagine that she feels qualified because she took care of so many foster kids and, oh yeah, GOD told her to run for prez.  Because we will live in a country where when we tell others that a voice told them to do something, unless it was child rape or murder, we accept it.  Here's a woman who said that God told her to run for the House, but still had to raise the most money EVER for a House Campaign.  What, even with God on your side, you don't have the capital necessary?  I thought you just need the go ahead from the Big Guy Upstairs?

Also, on behalf of the state of Georgia, I would like to apologize for Herman Cain.  People are getting excited about him, but they also got excited about Alan Keyes (which nothing ever came of, I would remind the audience.)  The fact that the man hasn't apologized for the comments regarding Muslims and, in addition, hasn't resigned from the campaign entirely is ludicrous and shows that there are still bigots that can run for office and bigots that are going to support other bigots.

Even when given more than ample opportunity to redact the statement, he just doubled-down and said that he wouldn't hire those that were trying to kill him.  Well, what a brave fucking position!  Unlike Obama, who hired assassins and thugs to surround him... what President would hire people that are trying to kill him?  Even for the flourish and rhetoric, Cain is just a distraction.  If the GOP is smart, they'll ignore him and drop him like a bad habit.  But, as an Obama supporter, I hope he stays in the race through several primaries.

Back in 2008, the GOP had a very simple choice to make:  first, they had to find someone who was willing to run for president that didn't have strong or blatant ties to the previous administration.  They managed to cock that up relatively quickly.

Second, they had to find someone that appealed to the center more than Bush II.  They had (and have) that in Romney.  Romney managed to get elected Gov. of Mass. as a Republican!  And everyone that I've talked to from Boston that remembers the Romney years all said, "he was a great governor!"  Understanding of course that during the primaries and caucuses you have to appeal to the base, but the smart campaigner will be able to appeal to the base and convince them that they have to think about the general election now.

Having said all that, I will reiterate that I'm an ardent Obama supporter and will advocate for his re-election.