GOP Candidate Breakdown #9: Herman Cain

I lived in Atlanta, Georgia for several years.  Some of my favorite times were in the year 2008.  I don't have a sports team that I follow, no real religion to speak of, so it was replaced by the 2008 campaign.  I watched CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News all the time, I was constantly reading the Drudge Report; it's safe to say that I knew everything that was going on in the campaign, I knew the journalists and the broadcasters who was with what campaign and the latest poll numbers.

In Atlanta, there's a talk radio station, WSB 750 that hosted people like Neal Boortz (who I don't mind as much as I used to), Clark Howard (there's nothing wrong with Clark Howard) and Sean Hannity (who I despise.)  Late in the evening, about 8pm, they'd play the Michael Savage show.  For those of you who don't know who Savage is, I would say that you lead normal and well-adjusted lives.  I know this because the moment that Savage enters your life, everything will fall into chaos and disarray.

I was leaving work late one night and turned on the radio.  I listened to WSB because I like listening to points of view and opinion that radically differ from my own.  But one evening instead of listening to the harsh and crass Brooklyn-accented voice of Savage, came a clear, concise Southern elegance, the kind that you'd expect a Baptist preacher from Georgia to execute without flaw.  It was Herman Cain.  He replaced Michael Savage because (according to talking with someone at WSB), they had to push Savage back to get the "nutjobs" to stop calling during the "regular" hours.

So my first full-on exposure to Herman Cain wasn't as quick as others.  He is known of course to be the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and for having turned the company around (with the exception of the one up the street from my house.)  He also ran in 2004 for the Georgia Senate Seat that was being vacated by Zell Miller and would be taken by Johnny Isakson (R).  But with this radio show, he was going to get a chance to speak to the Atlanta audience and who-knows-where-else and explain his message.

He's still in the race despite poll numbers and general lack of knowing what the hell he's doing.  So, let's get to it.

Age: 65.  He's in good health and shows his age a little, but there's polish in there.  Thats to say that Herman Cain looks wise not just... well, old.

Hometown:  He was born in Tennessee, but his home for the last several years has been Atlanta, GA.  He's usually described of as Georgian or from Georgia, which is well-enough.

It should be noted that he's the only candidate so far that doesn't have a political office under his belt.  Outside of radio broadcaster and CEO, his other credential is Chariman of the Federal Bank in Kansas City.  He's never been elected to office before, despite his campaigns.

Place in the Republican Party:  He's likable to the Tea Party movement and Fox News likes him as well, more because they like conservative minorities and not really because of who Herman Cain is or what he stands for.  Because he's never held an elected office before and hasn't won a campaign before, he's considered more of a fringe candidate than Ron Paul.

He's okay with fundraising, but will have a long way to go to match Perry, Bachmann or Romney.

Polls:


Nationally, he's in the back of the pack.  If someone like Palin enters the race, like Ron Paul, Herman Cain should consider cutting his loses.  His voice would be lost in the media shitstorm that would ensue.

In a head-to-head match up with Obama, Cain loses by an average of 14 points.  That number is born out of two points:  Cain has a hard time getting his name and message out among the other candidates (a problem that Obama doesn't have) and while Obama is slipping in popularity, people prefer the Devil they know to the Devil they don't.  The other point is this:  what little information about Cain that has gotten out into the public knowledge has been his strong opposition against Muslims.  Not Muslim extremists, just Muslims.   More about that later on in this post.

Iowa:  He's towards the back in the poll averages, however, this is going to be worse once Perry is included in all the polling.  A black conservative businessman isn't going to have the same sort of appeal that a white Southern farmer is going to.  This blogger also wonders how Cain's religion and church (here's a link to the website of the church he's a minister that he attends) is going to play out should he advance in the nomination process.

New Hampshire: Again, not doing so hot in New Hampshire.  The more libertarian-minded populace of the state should prove to be something of an advantage to Cain, but it's harder for him to get his name out in the media (in a good way).

South Carolina:  He does better here.  However, Perry isn't put into the mix and, again, if Palin enters, a lot of attention will be taken from Cain.  As I've written before, SC does like it's crazy politicians and in the South, smart-mouthed politicians can get a little bit further.  If his campaign survives long enough, he could stand to do well here, but it's hard to imagine him getting by far enough.  At least at this point.

Florida:  More bad news. He gets shoved back, even with a hypothetical Palin campaign and there's no reason to think that he would do well in Florida.  If he can somehow position himself as a favorite in the Tea Party and still appear as a loyal Republican, he might do well.  But it's hard to tell and a little bit of a long shot.

Nevada:  Herman who?

As I wrote earlier, there are two main problems with Cain's campaign:  name recognition and bad name recognition.

Not a lot of people know who Herman Cain is and sometimes he just comes across as a bad imitation of Alan Keyes.  He's never held an elected position anywhere and, while he has a strength in a business background, there's a larger question as to whether or not that is necessary to get the country running in the right direction again.  He has to make both arguments at the same time;  that's double the work that he has to put into the campaign.

The other problem, and maybe the bigger problem, is that when Herman Cain does get on television, it's about some horrible and disgraceful thing that he has said about Muslims.  He's vocal that he wouldn't nominate a Muslim to his cabinet, he's said that Sharia law is trying to take over the country and that he's supportive of communities that want to ostracize Muslims and prevent the construct of mosques anywhere.  As these links demonstrate, it's not just that he's wrong, but that he's gone back and said that he didn't say these things.  Which makes him a liar and an opportunist.

While there is something refreshing about his bluntness and his frank speaking manner (something I always appreciate), it has to be made clear that someone that he is bigoted in private and lies about it in public.  Does he not remember that he says these things?  And if Muslims are a problem domestically, how would this play out in diplomatic relations in Pakistan and Indonesia and other predominately Muslim nations?

I don't think that Herman Cain is a bad person, but he should stop and ask himself why he's running for president.  It comes across to me as a vanity project.  It's why he took the radio gig, it's why he's a commentator on Fox News and Fox Business and why he says half the things that he does.  He's disingenuous, insincere and is a waste of everyone's time.

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Bread and Circuses: Primarily Ridiculous

There are about 308 million people that live in the country.  Over 50% of the nation lives in one of the following ten states (starting with the highest):

1. California
2.  Texas
3. New York
4. Florida
5. Illinois
6. Pennsylvania
7. Ohio
8. Michigan
9. Georgia (I'm from there!)
10.  North Carolina


The first primaries and caucuses, however, are not held in these states.  They're held in South Carolina (#24), Iowa (#30), Nevada (#35) and New Hampshire (#42).  Combined, these states have a combined population less that of the Los Angeles Metro Area.  The entire state of South Carolina's population could fit in Atlanta, GA.  So, why is it that these states are the ones that have the first primaries?  More or less because... well, they say so.

Everyone in South Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada could live here.

This first in the nation mentality has two adverse affects.  First, it creates a false mentality that the people who live in these states are relevant.  I don't say that to be cruel.  But the reality of the situation is that polticians every four years descend upon the state of Iowa, they make the party chairmen happy and they always make some vague promise about ethanol subsidies and then never do anything about it.  A bunch of money is dumped into the state and then it becomes a political pariah for the remainder of the term of the presidency.

And New Hampshire, classy place that it is, has a state law that requires that the first primary in the nation has to be held there.  It used to be held in March, but when other states even move their primary a little bit close to NH's, they move it up.  In 2008, the Secretary of State of NH, classy guy that he is, said that if the other states would move their primaries again, that it would push NH to have their primary in 2007, almost TEN MONTHS before the general election.  And he didn't care that this was going to elongate the process (the entire election run takes far, far, far too much time) and by elongating the process making it cost more money.  But as long as NH becomes relevant for a few months every few years...

I could go on about how the NH primary hasn't picked the eventual nominee for the Democrats since Jimmy Carter in 1976 (35 years) and hasn't done that with the Republicans since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (23 years).  The reason why this is important because the argument for the NH primary to be held first is because the electorate is said to be more highly educated and better versed in politics, civics and government.  Why hold the first primary in the nation if you're going to pick Senator Paul Tsongas.  Do you remember who that is?  I rest my case.

Now, we're brought to South Carolina.  Gov. Nikki Haley may cut funding for the primary in the state.  (This column will give her credit for being consistent.  If she's going to cut the state's public broadcasting, she should at least cut funding for her party's state primary.)  This means that they would have to move to a less costly caucus and may give other states (probably Florida), the chance to step forward and assume the First in the South Primary.


Sigh.

This kind of infighting is wholly unnecessary and by and large creates a false narrative in the entire election process.  The fact of the matter is that it didn't matter then, it doesn't matter now and it won't ever really matter what voters in one state think.  It's the collective view of the entire population of the country.

And the things that gets me is that it doesn't have to be this way! They are alternatives to the current primary system (which takes far too long and is far too expensive) and they would require not an action of Congress or the President, but they could be done by a conference of all the Secretaries of State for the individual states.  I mean, it's not as if they're doing anything else right now!

The established states should step aside for new ways of making a party's nominee.  It's putting too much power in such a specialized population.  It's nice to think that going to small towns and rural regions give us that homespun wisdom that we need to get by in this crazy, mixed-up world that we live in, but it's disingenuous and, frankly, not practical any more.

www.nuzcom.com

Rick Perry. Sigh and Yawn.

Rick Perry Running For President?

I don't feel that I have to remind the public about the rule against voting for former Govs of Texas for Prez, but I think that I'm going to anyway.

DON'T SUPPORT FORMER GOVERNORS OF TEXAS!  That state doesn't get to send another person to be prez.  And if Republicans have a problem with that, I would cite Jimmy Carter.  You want another Georgia Peach heading to DC?  No?  Good... now Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich should drop out any time now...

But most pertinently to the case of Governor Perry is that he said specifically that he didn't want to be Prez.  What does it say when he says something very specific like "I don't want to be President of the United States." and then goes to "I'm going to think about it."?  I mean, for a group of conservative intellectuals (I use the term loosely) that don't allow for ambiguity or shades of grey, this is showing some depth.

It's not that I think that Perry shouldn't run for president.  I mean, he shouldn't but that's not the point.  The point is when you are specific with your constituents about a campaign promise, you have to follow through.  There are some cases when these things change.  A guy running for president usually says that the system is broken and that they are going to change it and, once elected, rarely get to affect the change that they want (at least in Obama's case, he tried.)  You have to go back and talk to the people that put you into office and rationalize everything that happened in the interim (between when you were elected and what happened once you got there.)

But there are certain promises that are EASY to maintain!  "I'm not going to run for President." is a gimme!  Just don't run for president.

Also, I'm not entirely comfortable with a guy who thoughtlessly talked about Texas' "special" case re: secession.   Because I thought that the Civil War settled the whole thing.  And the answer was "No."

But is it just me or is Perry a little boring?  I mean, he doesn't have the colossal  fuck-up comments like W. and everyone in TX seems to be pretty happy with him.  Feel free to correct me.

And here I go correcting myself.  This is a guy that has invited all the other govs. of the nation to get together in TX and have a big prayer pow-wow so that Jesus will come off his Moon Base and help the rest of the country... even though we have God on our side... WAIT, Jesus isn't on the Moon, that's what Mormons think...

But, joking aside, there's no fire in the belly, there's no passion for the office of the presidency, not like when he was running for Gov. of TX.  I don't think that he's actually going to do it, in the end.  After all, he'd have to fight for the Xian vote in the GOP with Bachmann (I almost wrote Palin), but honestly, he doesn't seem like the kind of guy that wants to fight head-to-head with Craaaaazeeeee.

GOP Debate - Pick Romney and Cut the Fat

If the moment could be crystallized and maintained, it would seem that the GOP would be able to rectify the mistake that they made last prez election cycle by supporting Mitt Romney.  The fact of the matter is that he is the most sensible of the entire group, both in 2008 and now again in 2012.  Reports seem to indicate two things: first, he's the man to beat.  Second, that he would be the only chance at diversity that the GOP would have.

Michelle Bachmann also quietly announced that she was running for prez.  I can only imagine that she feels qualified because she took care of so many foster kids and, oh yeah, GOD told her to run for prez.  Because we will live in a country where when we tell others that a voice told them to do something, unless it was child rape or murder, we accept it.  Here's a woman who said that God told her to run for the House, but still had to raise the most money EVER for a House Campaign.  What, even with God on your side, you don't have the capital necessary?  I thought you just need the go ahead from the Big Guy Upstairs?

Also, on behalf of the state of Georgia, I would like to apologize for Herman Cain.  People are getting excited about him, but they also got excited about Alan Keyes (which nothing ever came of, I would remind the audience.)  The fact that the man hasn't apologized for the comments regarding Muslims and, in addition, hasn't resigned from the campaign entirely is ludicrous and shows that there are still bigots that can run for office and bigots that are going to support other bigots.

Even when given more than ample opportunity to redact the statement, he just doubled-down and said that he wouldn't hire those that were trying to kill him.  Well, what a brave fucking position!  Unlike Obama, who hired assassins and thugs to surround him... what President would hire people that are trying to kill him?  Even for the flourish and rhetoric, Cain is just a distraction.  If the GOP is smart, they'll ignore him and drop him like a bad habit.  But, as an Obama supporter, I hope he stays in the race through several primaries.

Back in 2008, the GOP had a very simple choice to make:  first, they had to find someone who was willing to run for president that didn't have strong or blatant ties to the previous administration.  They managed to cock that up relatively quickly.

Second, they had to find someone that appealed to the center more than Bush II.  They had (and have) that in Romney.  Romney managed to get elected Gov. of Mass. as a Republican!  And everyone that I've talked to from Boston that remembers the Romney years all said, "he was a great governor!"  Understanding of course that during the primaries and caucuses you have to appeal to the base, but the smart campaigner will be able to appeal to the base and convince them that they have to think about the general election now.

Having said all that, I will reiterate that I'm an ardent Obama supporter and will advocate for his re-election.